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Depo-Provera brain tumor lawsuits have generated extensive settlement projections from law firms nationwide, with estimates ranging from $75,000 to over $1.5 million depending on injury severity. No actual settlements have been reached as of August 2025, but 550+ cases are now consolidated in MDL 3140 in the Northern District of Florida under Judge M. Casey Rodgers, with bellwether trials expected in late 2026. Most firms project $200,000 to $500,000 for typical cases involving surgery, with higher values for severe complications and lower amounts for monitored-only tumors.
Comprehensive settlement projection matrix by source
Tier-based settlement systems
| Source |
Tier 1 (Most Severe) |
Tier 2 (Moderate) |
Tier 3 (Lower) |
Tier 4 (Minimal) |
| Lawsuit Information Center |
$650,000-$1,500,000+ (Grade III, surgery, permanent disability) |
$300,000-$650,000 (Grade II or symptomatic Grade I with surgery) |
$150,000-$300,000 (Non-surgical Grade I, monitoring) |
Under $150,000 (Asymptomatic) |
| TruLaw |
$300,000-$1,000,000+ (Extensive surgery, permanent disability) |
$150,000-$300,000 (Surgery with recovery) |
$75,000-$150,000 (Minimal intervention) |
Not specified |
| TorHoerman Law |
$300,000-$500,000+ (Surgery, permanent impairment) |
$200,000-$300,000 (Surgery, partial recovery) |
$100,000-$200,000 (Monitoring, minimal symptoms) |
Not specified |
| Miller & Zois |
Grade III: $1,000,000-$2,000,000+ |
Grade II: $400,000-$700,000 |
Grade I: $100,000-$2,000,000 (wide range) |
Not specified |
Law firm settlement ranges (non-tiered projections)
| Law Firm |
Settlement Range |
Average/Typical Case |
Severe Cases |
| Morgan & Morgan |
General compensation |
Medical costs + lost wages + pain/suffering |
Not specified |
| Weitz & Luxenberg |
Not publicly specified |
Filed first federal case, MDL leadership |
$19B total firm recoveries |
| Simmons Hanly Conroy |
Five to six figures |
Based on pharmaceutical precedent |
$11.3B firm-wide recoveries |
| Sokolove Law |
Historical benchmark |
Meningioma average: $867,555 |
Trial verdicts: $3+ million |
| King Law |
$150,000-$500,000 |
Matrix distribution system |
$500,000+ for severe |
| Rosenfeld Injury Lawyers |
$200,000-$1,000,000 |
Average range |
May exceed for severe |
| Riddle & Brantley |
$150,000-$500,000 |
Contingency basis |
No settlements finalized |
| Maryland Injury Law Center |
$50,000-$500,000 |
Mid-range: $150,000-$500,000 |
Higher for severe cases |
Lead generation and legal information sites
| Source |
Projected Range |
Methodology |
Notes |
| DrugWatch |
$100,000-$500,000+ |
Based on similar mass torts |
“Too early to predict exact amounts” |
| ConsumerNotice.org |
Not specified |
Focuses on 5.6x risk factor |
Emphasizes pilot cases |
| ClassAction.org |
$150,000-$500,000 |
Meningioma severity as key factor |
Contingency fee structure |
| AboutLawsuits.com |
Tracks case counts |
550+ cases in MDL |
Bellwether trials 2026-2027 |
Settlement determination criteria by factor
Duration of use requirements and impact
| Duration |
Minimum Required |
Settlement Impact |
| 2 injections |
Most firms’ minimum |
Baseline eligibility |
| 4+ injections/1 year |
Some firms require |
Standard case value |
| 3+ years |
Stronger causation |
50-100% value increase |
| 5+ years |
Most compelling cases |
75-150% value increase |
| 10+ years |
Highest risk category |
Maximum value potential |
Tumor grade impact on settlement values
| Tumor Grade |
Classification |
Typical Settlement Range |
Treatment Usually Required |
| Grade I |
Benign meningioma |
$75,000-$300,000 |
Often watch-and-wait |
| Grade II |
Atypical meningioma |
$300,000-$650,000 |
Surgery typically required |
| Grade III |
Malignant/anaplastic |
$650,000-$1,500,000+ |
Surgery, radiation, ongoing treatment |
Age and demographic factors
| Age at First Use |
Settlement Impact |
Reasoning |
| Teens/Early 20s |
75-150% higher values |
Greater life impact, reproductive effects |
| 25-40 years |
Standard values |
Peak earning years affected |
| 40-55 years |
Standard to slightly lower |
Mid-career impact |
| 55-70 years |
10-30% reduction |
Shorter life expectancy impact |
| Over 70 |
Often ineligible |
Many firms won’t accept |
MDL 3140 status and participation structure
Current litigation metrics
- MDL Location: Northern District of Florida (compromise between California and New York)
- Presiding Judge: M. Casey Rodgers (handled 3M earplug $6 billion settlement)
- Case Count Growth: 22 cases (Nov 2024) → 78 (Mar 2025) → 289 (May 2025) → 550+ (Aug 2025)
- Monthly Growth Rate: Nearly 25% increase in July 2025
- Lead Counsel: Christopher Seeger (Seeger Weiss LLP)
- Co-Lead Counsel: Bryan Aylstock (AWKO) and Ellen Relkin (Weitz & Luxenberg)
Individual lawsuit vs MDL participation comparison
| Aspect |
Individual Lawsuit |
MDL Participation |
| Settlement Valuation |
Case-specific negotiation |
Tiered matrix system |
| Timeline |
Potentially faster if simple |
2-3 years typical |
| Legal Costs |
Higher individual costs |
Shared discovery costs |
| Attorney Access |
Direct relationship |
Part of larger team |
| Settlement Control |
Full individual control |
Can reject global settlement |
| Expert Witnesses |
Must secure individually |
Shared expert pool |
| Discovery Burden |
Individual responsibility |
Coordinated effort |
Comparative pharmaceutical settlements for context
| Litigation |
Total Settlement |
Number of Claims |
Average Per Claim |
| Yaz/Yasmin |
$2.04 billion |
10,300 blood clots |
~$198,000 |
| Essure |
$1.6 billion |
39,000 claims |
~$41,000 |
| Previous Meningioma Cases |
Individual settlements |
Various |
Average: $867,555 |
| Meningioma Trial Verdicts |
Individual verdicts |
Various |
Average: $3.4 million |
| Depo-Provera (Canada) |
$2+ million |
Bone density warning |
Single settlement |
Factors affecting settlement amounts: comprehensive analysis
Medical treatment requirements
Surgery (Craniotomy) represents the strongest value indicator, typically placing cases in the highest settlement tiers. Firms universally agree that surgical intervention increases settlement values by 200-400%. Cases requiring multiple surgeries or experiencing surgical complications command premium values, often exceeding $1 million. Radiation therapy adds another layer of severity, while monitoring-only cases fall into lower tiers.
Documentation and causation strength
The quality of medical documentation significantly impacts case values, with strong causation evidence potentially increasing settlements by 50-100%. Key documentation includes clear timeline correlation between Depo-Provera use and tumor development, treating physician support for causation, and comprehensive medical records showing treatment progression. The BMJ study’s 5.6-fold increased risk finding provides the scientific foundation, with 70% of meningiomas expressing progesterone receptors strengthening the biological plausibility.
Complications and long-term impact
Permanent neurological deficits command the highest settlements, including cognitive impairment, vision loss, seizure disorders, and motor function problems. Quality of life impacts factor heavily, with lost wages for younger plaintiffs, need for long-term care, and inability to perform daily activities all increasing values. Cases involving complete disability or death represent the highest tier, potentially exceeding $1.5 million.
Timeline and settlement expectations
Key litigation milestones
The September 29, 2025 oral arguments on Pfizer’s preemption defense represent a critical juncture that could determine the litigation’s viability. General causation discovery continues through October 2025, with expert depositions closing January 10, 2026. Bellwether trials are anticipated for late 2026 or early 2027, which will establish settlement benchmarks. Global settlement negotiations typically begin after initial trial results, likely in 2027.
Settlement process projections
Most firms expect a tiered global settlement structure similar to other mass torts, with individual case evaluation based on injury severity. Special masters will likely evaluate individual claims using point systems, with settlement offers varying from $75,000 to over $1 million based on tier placement. Plaintiffs retain the right to reject global settlements and proceed to trial, though 95% typically accept negotiated settlements in mass tort cases.
Conclusion
The Depo-Provera brain tumor litigation shows strong momentum with rapidly growing case numbers and experienced leadership positioning it for significant settlements. While no actual settlements have been reached, the consistent projections across multiple firms suggest $200,000-$500,000 for typical surgical cases, with severe cases potentially exceeding $1 million. The combination of strong scientific evidence, international warning precedent, and the devastating nature of brain tumor injuries positions this litigation favorably compared to other pharmaceutical mass torts. Potential plaintiffs should note that these remain projections subject to bellwether trial outcomes and resolution of Pfizer’s legal defenses, with actual settlements not expected before late 2026 at the earliest.
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